Cisco
The Past 11 Times This Has Happened, We’ve Had A
The Past 11 Times This Has Happened, We’ve Had A Recession | Michael Kantrowitz
#Times #Happened #Weve
“Adam Taggart | Thoughtful Money”
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Excellent interview. Michael should be a 'regular' on your channel. His model strikes me as both thorough and understandable.
What would the charts and your prognostications look like if you took away the data from the top 2% as being aberrant.
This interview was all over the map. He is saying october 2022 was the low. So he's calling for no landing ? But his hope framework points to ressession. He threw out his own framework because of the household networth chart (this is always high at the peak of the market) and the 4 ressessions that showed 10 year US bond peaking as the low for these 4 ressessions. I appreciate that he is 2nd guessing his own work and the Good news is bad new is 100% the market reality right now. But this will change after rate cuts are reality. Bad news will be bad new and good news good news
Is the 10% rule spike of the unemployment rate works also in canada and other countries? Only in the us?
"We may never get to hard times." AHAHAHA!!! Thanks. I needed that laugh this morning. Sure, the 1% won't ever get to hard times. Pretty sure the general population always pays the bill at the end of dinner.
Unfortunately, the data is manipulated for so many things. Unemployment doesn’t count those who didn’t find a job and ran out of benefits. Job growth doesn’t indicate net after layoffs. Stock prices are supported by stock buybacks using low- or no-interest loans, etc., so that we can’t know what’s really going on.
Listening to this guy and others like him in 2023 caused me to miss out on a huge run
Great interview!
Not at all what I was expecting! Bear becomes bull… wow.
When the bears start capitulating you know you're in trouble. The minute Adam says "well maybe we aren't going to get the hard landing" 💥💥😂
The HOPE frame might work in a standard business cycle, but since Covid we have had anything but. Gigantic fiscal stimulous and deficit spending have distorted all the organic signals macro models (such as HOPE) used to rely on. We live in a fiscal dominance world (soon to be fiscal repression), and investment models have to adapt to recognize that.
The H should be on the end of the line as forced sellers bring down prices when they lose their jobs.
He dont get it
UUHHHMMMM
best interview you have done, top 5
Adam, please stop saying Okay, alright to every point.
It’s true that we don’t have high energy prices to hurt people this time. But we do have huge consumer price increases. Just go buy ANYTHING right now. That increase in prices is way more damaging than an oil price spike. We don’t have an energy price spike is because demand is so low.
Yeah we have a recession every 10 years
Thank you, Adam! Great info as always!
I'm a manufacturer. We are in a recession now. Business is down 80% easy.
He's bullish now? Contrarian signal, time to turn bearish.
People still talking about a recession don't get it. A recession will not be allowed. The next step of the US economy is hyperinflation until collapse. Asset hyperinflation has been happening since removal of the gold standard. Now it's going to be hyperinflation for every product as the dollar loses reserve currency. The government can't allow a recession as the US loses reserve currency status because the economy would never recover and quickly fall apart. Hyperinflation is just a delay tactic.
Me thinketh the Lathe Cap could really be renamed the……..Kneecap.
An offer you can refuse!@?🤪😉🤑
The problem is looking back at charts, the correlation between inflation and unemployment have not failed. Every time they print butt loads of money people suffer in a later term, the problem is becoming now the "later" is turning into "sooner".
Graph axes are wrong. Months are independent and should be on the x axis.
Hello Adam, i have been watching these videos for about 6 months now
i think if one has an advisor that they are working with then they don’t need to see these videos especially when they are paying someone knowledgeable to do the work of managing money for them.
however if one doesn’t have any advisor then seeing these videos is not helpful simply because every guest has a different opinion and you end up getting thrown in different directions after listening to each interview.
its good entertainment but this can create more harm than good if emotions are not managed correctly.
so essentially i am questioning why am i watching these videos every week 😊
my 2 cents
The business cycle has not gone extinct, it just that bubble money from both the Treasury and the Fed will just not let it happen till after November 5th.
No one can predict the future. Just stay balanced to handle different outcomes.
Slides available?
The best strategist seen on your channel so far. The most insightful comments