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Tesla’s Optimus Will Change Everything in 2024.
Tesla’s Optimus Will Change Everything in 2024. Confusion Continues to Be an Issue
#Teslas #Optimus #Change
“Randy Kirk”
Those who are best informed about the Optimus bot are all bullish on the potential for 2024. We may not all agree on how far progress will take us, there is no doubt that at least Optimus will be deployed in Tesla factories.
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I trust those Elon Musk marvelous minds will perform the right moves to bring Optimus to market at costs that cannot be refused, due to its expected job high quality, and its unique usefulness, in thousands different tasks, even in the void of some nearby planets, where lack of breathable air will not be a problem for a robot. I don't think that 2024 will perform a miracle for Tesla, but surely in the following years we could see an explosion of demand that could send Tesla stock value parabolic. I am a 2 years Tesla investor, and I wouldn't dream of selling the stock, for its leadership and growth potential in various high tech fields are so enormous, that given a few years its stock value is bound to explode. Said that I don't see many competitors, nor many other firms anywhere close to the miracles that Tesla seem to easily perform. I drive a Tesla and it is the finest car around, thanks to Elon that vowed to bring to market the best car in the world, my confidence is extremely high that he will apply the same principle of honesty to every other product that will launch in the market, years ahead to any terrestrial competitor.
It will change absolutely nothing and will not be done.
I was thinking about one job that is really important but no one wants to do is sorting garbage. It is a filthy job that nobody wants to do, which is perfect for Optimus. I worked for a company that picked up rolloff boxes from construction sites and houses that were filled with valuable recyclable material. Because of the cost of separating all the material, it was dumped into a landfill north of Chicago, Illinois and covered with dirt. What a complete waste of money besides recycling the material into something useful. An Optimus robot could do that easily.
Several years ago I told my son, back when he was around 8 yrs old, now he's 13, how it is important to think carefully what type of job you'd like to do when you are older because I am positive that by the time you grow up, simple jobs that you see, putting products on shelves, collecting the garbage etc… will all be done by robots. I didn't know about Optimus back then but it doesn't take a genius to figure that out! Now I see that I was right. Even 13 years ago, I went to work at a factory after my Tool & Die shop closed. I came home the first day and told my wife how some people have such easy jobs that I could learn it in literally 15 seconds. I told her how these guys must be crazy to think that they could do this till retirement because I'd throw a robot in there to do that job a.s.a.p. !! a few years later they did! A furnace line that took 5 people to operate became a 2 person job. we had 5 furnace lines, do the math! SO easy to see into the future when others cant.
Marking something up 5 times, is not the same as marking up something by 5 times.
$100 item
Up 5x = $161.05. This assumes a standard 10% markup (margin) for each participant.
By 5x = $500.00 this is not the way things are marked up but is suggested by Randy in his example.
Tesla’s workforce without Optimus has seen significant growth over the years12: With new factories and products, what is the forecast of workers plus Optimus in 2025~2030?
2019: 48,016 employees
2020: 70,757 employees (a 47.36% increase from 2019)
2021: 99,290 employees (a 40.33% increase from 2020)
2022: 127,855 employees (a 28.77% increase from 2021)
2023: 140,000 employees (a 9.48% increase from 2022) estimated
One additional advantage you forgot to mention of using an Optimus is consistent quality of the job it is performing. Also, since it has cameras, if there is an issue the date, time, reason for the problem can be found and the bot retrained to prevent reoccurrence.
I think the problem with Optimus is that its like a Swiss Army knife of utility. People just cannot believe that we're already in the era of useful humanoid robots that can see, hear, understand, respond and do what is asked of them, within reason at the moment, but functionality is increasing exponentially day by day. Itslike C3PO from Star wars in real life and people just aren't ready for it. They doubt, nay say, refuse to accept it then, finally & begrudgingly realize that the tipping point is reached. As Bachman–Turner Overdrive said 'You aint seen nothing yet'
All the gender studies box packers are in serious trouble.
No factory is going to go all in on Tesla bots, at the start. They will buy/rent a few and test them for a year, before deciding if they are viable. Only after it proves its worth will the factory make a big investment that also shakes up its workforce.
Can it cut my lawn, do the dishes, do my laundry, and take out the trash? If so, I'm game.
Simple fact is Optimus is going to make if it is even half successful a lot of money and easily eclipse current valuation of Tesla with EVs. Regardless of Chinese competition, regardless of devaluation of labor, regardless of all those concerns. Naysayers are simply not getting it in proper context. People simply do not grasp what multiplying human type labor means… anyone frankly stupid enough to think even in the long term this isn’t going to propel Tesla up are probably in the same boat preaching how “competition is coming” as though for some strange reason Tesla is going to sit still lo n enough for “competition” to take them down..
Forget bots in Mexico
Millions unemployed in Central America
This would be political dynamite in Mexico
you are probably right about the set up procedures but i also allowed one engineer for every 50 robots for maintenance callouts for the first 3 years moving to one eng per 200 thereafter so 5000 well paid eng jobs per million leases.
i see the bot going to Nevada as no workforce then i see them making bots there.
from there i see them going to mexico etc with that being a reason for the delay.
Rent – they should yes. I see only $2000 / month though as Tesla are NOT greedy and dare others to beat their pricing. Also this will be an international product and for many places salary of $2000/month is a fortune.
😊
There are other savings that people are not mentioning. One is Workers Comp. These are roughly 30% of factory wages in most states. Another is the costs of company Human Resources. HR won’t be totally eliminated but will be reduced. There will be less training. Payroll depts will also be reduced.
QUESTION
Do you think by the end of 2024 Tesla will produce more Cybertrucks than either GM or Ford electric trucks? Looking at trends, I think it is a possibility.
Tesla will always present the minimum viable product like we do in software development. That is where Elon gets the idea from! Developments crucial to Optimus are already in use in Tesla factories… It is no coincidence that Tesla's current factory robots sport multiple cameras LoL Some output from Optimus program can be utilised before Optimus is ready elsewhere.
Hey Randy, when thinking about the value of Optimus as a replacement for human labour you should consider this against the lower end of GLOBAL labour costs! Why do you think all the manufacturing was offshored LoL This isn't a criticism of the Optimus idea it's just reality and doesn't negate the value case much. Some jobs must be done locally, think plumber, carer, electrician or roofer… These will be higher value in western economies.
Hi Randy, I'm wondering, would you be better off dropping the pretense of being able to call the stock for the day? The volatility is off the scale re TSLA – its susceptible to violent movements on a both predictable and unpredictable basis. I appreciate what you do. I love your optimistic spirit, and I appreciate your hard work and commitment, but the stock is just too vulnerable – and too excitable arguably too – and calling it in any given day – or week – is impossible. WS and institutional investors aren't just rationally prospective in their analysis, and MSM aggression and stupidity feeds further into the greater volatility that is already inherent in innovation stocks – especially an ultra-ambitious one like TSLA! (not sure that there are too many other examples!) 'Profit taking' is the stand-by excuse for any downwards movement we can't otherwise explain, at least, in the moment, but it ain't always so, but even to the extent that it is, its occurrence is very unpredictable! Even making estimates of $x by x date is making a rod for your own back, and you know that there's no reasonable basis to do it, right? 🙂 Everything else you do is great though and definitely credible:)
Your points about shifting to volume production are true, but only if you simply look at Optimus as hardware and software. If Optimus can be sold that way (i.e.: open a box, turn it on, and show it what to do, then the TAM is huge.
Unfortunately, that won't be true for at least a year, probably 2-3 years, At present, the bots will have to be trained by Tesla specialists who are deeply connected to the product development (software and AI training) team. This limits the number that can be delivered because each delivery will have a heavy service element (i.e.: extremely rare and costly experts) that will cost far more than the bot's components and assembly. Delivering a bot with a part-time support engineer to babysit it makes no economic sense. These people are far too valuable to waste.
Tesla needs to come up with generalized learning capabilities that can be deployed in the field. Remember that FSD vehicles don't learn. Vehicles can be instructed to collect data that matches specific conditions, but machine learning is done with massive supercomputer clusters. The cars are running a highly-optimized inference model that is fully trained. There's no learning on board.
To accept instruction in the field, Tesla needs bots to be able to use the inference hardware (on the bot) to do at least part of the learning. This means abstracting the learning process to make it simple enough that key elements of it can run on a small 100W computer. The bot hardware looks great, but there are huge issues remaining = e.g.: software architecture, data collection, training set curation, training strategies, neural net configuration, etc. These can be solved incrementally while deploying bots in small numbers that have been trained for specific tasks, but deploying bots outside Tesla will require a much more mature product.
I think bots will be deployed in Tesla factories in 2024, but they will be test items with engineering support teams. In some specific instances, bots may become economically useful by year end, but it will take at least 2 years for a commercial product to emerge (probably longer)
Elon says it will be big yes. There is low hanging fruit. Farming tasks like harvesting and weeding (eliminate pesticides). Tedious manufacturing processes/tasks that cause injury, that a non-humanoid robot cannot do. Household stuff is pitiful. People need to do some chores. I am not sure if we are headed for I-Robot level stuff.
The bot will replace thousands of other robots and machines. Hundreds of thousands of factories can be saved.
The « Killer Bot » ?
😂😂
If you rent forklifts and the company raises prices or goes out of business you just go somewhere else. With
Optimus there’s nowhere else to go. This makes renting risky.
Bot may not be as lucrative as we might think. Early on bots will bring great ROIs but when Bot begins displacing a significant number of human workers, governments will begin taxing bot labor in some manner to offset tax revenue losses. The result may be a much lower bot ROI.
I think the price will be half of the labor cost. That will reduce your labor cost in half. Meaning you can make 2X more on your product. So 50k employee will get Tesla a 25k profit which is a 500% ROI. Prices will have to come down so products are affordable for the newly unemployed. There will be new taxes on income earned to pay for the unemployed. Otherwise you will have a revolution.
Why would you waste a robot on folding laundry? Laundry folding is not something I bother with. Cleaning is another issue, however.